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Building on the SIR Model
  • Level Professional
  • المدة 20 ساعات hours
  • الطبع بواسطة Imperial College London
  • Offered by

عن

The other two courses in this specialisation require you to perform deterministic modelling - in other words, the epidemic outcome is predictable as all parameters are fully known. However, this course delves into the many cases – especially in the early stages of an epidemic – where chance events can be influential in the future of an epidemic. So, you'll be introduced to some examples of such ‘stochasticity’, as well as simple approaches to modelling these epidemics using R. You will examine how to model infections for which such ‘population structure’ plays an important role in the transmission dynamics, and will learn some of the basic approaches to modelling vector-borne diseases, including the Ross-McDonald Model. Even if you are not designing and simulating mathematical models in future, it is important to be able to critically assess a model so as to appreciate its strengths and weaknesses, and identify how it could be improved. One way of gaining this skill is to conduct a critical peer review of a modelling study as a reviewer, which is an opportunity you'll get by taking this course.

الوحدات

Welcome to the Course

    • 2 Videos
    • 4 Readings
    • 1 Discussion
    • 1 Lab
Show info about module content

1 Discussions

  • Discuss your Interest or Experience in Modelling

1 Labs

  • Completing Etivities in Jupyter Notebooks

2 Videos

  • Welcome to the Course
  • An Insider's View of IDM

4 Readings

  • Welcome to Infectious Disease Modelling
  • About the Infectious Disease Modelling Team
  • Glossary
  • Modelling Infectious Disease Dynamics

R References

    • 2 Lab
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2 Labs

  • R Reference Guide for IDM
  • Solving differential equations using ode() in R

Stochasticity and Determinism

    • 1 Videos
    • 2 Readings
    • 1 Discussion
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1 Discussions

  • What connects measles and MERS-CoV?

1 Videos

  • Stochastic and Deterministic Models

2 Readings

  • Building on the SIR Model
  • The Story of MERS Coronavirus

Simulating Stochasticity

    • 1 Videos
    • 1 Readings
    • 1 Discussion
    • 2 Lab
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1 Discussions

  • Outbreaks and Surveillance

2 Labs

  • Stochastic simulations of a novel pathogen
  • Solution: Stochastic simulations of a novel pathogen

1 Videos

  • Simulating Stochasticity

1 Readings

  • Calculating Incidence in a Deterministic Model

Stochasticity with Pre-existing Immunity

    • 1 Readings
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1 Readings

  • The Resurgence of Measles

Populations with Pre-existing Immunity

    • 1 Videos
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1 Videos

  • Populations with Pre-Existing Immunity

Age-specific Contact Rates

    • 2 Videos
    • 1 Readings
    • 3 Discussion
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3 Discussions

  • What Have Influenza and Syphilis Got in Common?
  • Modelling Age-Specific Contact Rates
  • Interpreting a Model with Age-Specific Mixing

2 Videos

  • Age-specific Mixing for Influenza
  • Modelling Age-Specific Mixing

1 Readings

  • The story of Seasonal Influenza

Age-structured Modelling

    • 4 Lab
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4 Labs

  • Age-structured model in R
  • Solution: Age-structured model in R
  • Extend your model to three age groups
  • Solution: Extend your model to three age groups

Interventions in an Age-structured Population

    • 1 Readings
    • 2 Lab
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2 Labs

  • Interventions in an age-structured population
  • Solution Interventions in an age-structured population

1 Readings

  • Modelling Influenza Vaccination Policy in the UK

Discussion: Questions so far?

    • 1 Discussion
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1 Discussions

  • Questions so far

Setting the Scene: Vector Borne Disease

    • 1 Readings
    • 1 Discussion
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1 Discussions

  • Dengue and Onchocerciasis

1 Readings

  • The Story of Dengue

Modelling Vector-Borne Diseases

    • 2 Videos
    • 2 Lab
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2 Labs

  • Coding a VBD Model
  • Solution: Coding a VBD Model

2 Videos

  • Ross MacDonald/Force of Infection - Part 1
  • Ross MacDonald/Force of Infection - Part 2

Vectorial Capacity and Interventions

    • 4 Videos
    • 1 Discussion
    • 2 Lab
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1 Discussions

  • Vectorial capacity and the impact of vector control interventions

2 Labs

  • Coding vector control interventions
  • Solution: Coding vector control interventions

4 Videos

  • Vectorial Capacity - Part 1
  • Vectorial Capacity - Part 2: Impact of Interventions
  • A Closer Look at Interventions Against VBDs
  • Vector-borne Diseases: Interventions and R0

Paper Critique (Scientific Peer Review)

    • 1 Discussion
    • 1 PeerReview
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1 Peer Review

  • Paper Critique

1 Discussions

  • Practice Paper Critique

Auto Summary

This Coursera course, led by an expert instructor, focuses on advanced epidemic modeling within the Health & Fitness domain. It explores stochastic models using R, essential for understanding the unpredictable nature of early epidemic stages. Learners will also study vector-borne diseases and critically review modeling studies. Suitable for professionals, the course lasts 1200 minutes and offers Starter and Professional subscription options.

Nimalan Arinaminpathy
Instructor

Nimalan Arinaminpathy