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Model Thinking
  • Level Foundation
  • Duration 27 hours
  • Course by University of Michigan
  • Offered by

About

We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians. The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!

Modules

Orientation Readings

    • 5 Readings
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5 Readings

  • Welcome
  • Community Engagement Rules
  • Course FAQ
  • Syllabus
  • Help us learn more about you!

Why Model?

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Thanks and Welcome
  • Why Model?
  • Intelligent Citizens of the World
  • Thinking More Clearly
  • Using and Understanding Data
  • Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design

Segregation and Peer Effects

    • 6 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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6 Videos

  • Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction
  • Schelling's Segregation Model
  • Measuring Segregation
  • Peer Effects
  • The Standing Ovation Model
  • The Identification Problem

1 Readings

  • Segregation and Peer Effects

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects

Aggregation

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Aggregation
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Six Sigma
  • Game of Life
  • Cellular Automata
  • Preference Aggregation

Decision Models

    • 6 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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6 Videos

  • Introduction to Decision Making
  • Multi-Criterion Decision Making
  • Spatial Choice Models
  • Probability: The Basics
  • Decision Trees
  • Value of Information

1 Readings

  • Decision Models

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Aggregation & Decision Models

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People

    • 5 Videos
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5 Videos

  • Thinking Electrons: Modeling People
  • Rational Actor Models
  • Behavioral Models
  • Rule Based Models
  • When Does Behavior Matter?

Categorical and Linear Models

    • 7 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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7 Videos

  • Introduction to Linear Models
  • Categorical Models
  • Linear Models
  • Fitting Lines to Data
  • Reading Regression Output
  • From Linear to Nonlinear
  • The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality

1 Readings

  • Categorical and Linear Models

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models

Tipping Points

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Tipping Points
  • Percolation Models
  • Contagion Models 1: Diffusion
  • Contagion Models 2: SIS Model
  • Classifying Tipping Points
  • Measuring Tips

Economic Growth

    • 7 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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7 Videos

  • Introduction To Growth
  • Exponential Growth
  • Basic Growth Model
  • Solow Growth Model
  • Will China Continue to Grow?
  • Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?
  • Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model

1 Readings

  • Economic Growth

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth

Diversity and Innovation

    • 5 Videos
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5 Videos

  • Problem Solving and Innovation
  • Perspectives and Innovation
  • Heuristics
  • Teams and Problem Solving
  • Recombination

Markov Processes

    • 5 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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5 Videos

  • Markov Models
  • A Simple Markov Model
  • Markov Model of Democratization
  • Markov Convergence Theorem
  • Exapting the Markov Model

1 Readings

  • Markov Processes

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Diversity and Innovation & Markov Processes

Midterm

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Modules 1-10

Lyapunov Functions

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Lyapunov Functions
  • The Organization of Cities
  • Exchange Economies and Externalities
  • Time to Convergence and Optimality
  • Lyapunov: Fun and Deep
  • Lyapunov or Markov

Coordination and Culture

    • 5 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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5 Videos

  • Coordination and Culture
  • What Is Culture And Why Do We Care?
  • Pure Coordination Game
  • Emergence of Culture
  • Coordination and Consistency

1 Readings

  • Coordination and Culture

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Lyapunov Functions & Coordination and Culture

Path Dependence

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Path Dependence
  • Urn Models
  • Mathematics on Urn Models
  • Path Dependence and Chaos
  • Path Dependence and Increasing Returns
  • Path Dependent or Tipping Point

Networks

    • 4 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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4 Videos

  • Networks
  • The Structure of Networks
  • The Logic of Network Formation
  • Network Function

1 Readings

  • Networks

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Path Dependence & Networks

Randomness and Random Walks

    • 6 Videos
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6 Videos

  • Randomness and Random Walk Models
  • Sources of Randomness
  • Skill and Luck
  • Random Walks
  • Random Walks and Wall Street
  • Finite Memory Random Walks

Colonel Blotto

    • 5 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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5 Videos

  • Colonel Blotto Game
  • Blotto: No Best Strategy
  • Applications of Colonel Blotto
  • Blotto: Troop Advantages
  • Blotto and Competition

1 Readings

  • Colonel Blotto

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Randomness and Random Walks & Colonel Blotto

Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action

    • 5 Videos
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5 Videos

  • Intro: The Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action
  • The Prisoners' Dilemma Game
  • Seven Ways To Cooperation
  • Collective Action and Common Pool Resource Problems
  • No Panacea

Mechanism Design

    • 4 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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4 Videos

  • Mechanism Design
  • Hidden Action and Hidden Information
  • Auctions
  • Public Projects

1 Readings

  • Mechanism Design

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action & Mechanism Design

Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics

    • 4 Videos
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4 Videos

  • Replicator Dynamics
  • The Replicator Equation
  • Fisher's Theorem
  • Variation or Six Sigma

Prediction and the Many Model Thinker

    • 4 Videos
    • 1 Readings
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4 Videos

  • Prediction
  • Linear Models
  • Diversity Prediction Theorem
  • The Many Model Thinker

1 Readings

  • Prediction and The Many Model Thinker

Review

    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics & Prediction and the Many Model Thinker

Final

    • 2 Readings
    • 1 Assignment
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1 Assignment

  • Modules 12-21

2 Readings

  • Post-course Survey
  • Keep Learning with Michigan Online

Auto Summary

"Model Thinking" is a foundational course in Business & Management, led by Coursera. It explores how using various models helps make sense of complex social phenomena, improve decision-making, and enhance forecasting abilities. The course includes digestible overview lectures and deeper technical details, suitable for learners across economics, political science, business, and sociology. With a duration of 1620 minutes, it offers free access, quizzes, and a final exam for a certificate, with subscription options ranging from Starter to Professional. Ideal for anyone seeking to become a better thinker and decision-maker.

Scott E. Page
Instructor

Scott E. Page